Playing favorites
There’s a lot of hype surrounding endorsements in the presidential primary. But do they really make a difference?
With only a few weeks remaining until the New Hampshire primary, the endorsements are pouring in, and Republican presidential candidates are jockeying for the handful of prized approvals that still remain.
As in past elections, some endorsements have generated controversy. But, despite the media commotion surrounding presidential endorsements, it’s unclear how much of an impact, if any, they actually have on voters.
According to Dante Scala, professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, endorsements can be “overrated.” Voters in the Granite State are showered with information. Presidential candidates visit the state in person, are interviewed by local newspapers, distribute mailers and advertisements, and appear nationally in televised debates. Endorsements are just one more piece of information among many for a voter to consider.
“It’s an easier way of keeping score, but I don’t know that it makes a big difference,” Scala said.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has led most New Hampshire polls since campaigning began more than a year ago. Accordingly, he has received more high-profile endorsements than any other candidate. Nationally, Romney’s supporters include former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and, most recently, former Vice President Dan Quayle.
In New Hampshire, prominent Republicans like former Gov. John H. Sununu and former U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg have come out in support of Romney, as have current U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte and U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass.
But even such high-status endorsements can have a minimal impact on voters. Scala noted that Gregg endorsed Romney in the 2008 primary, as well, only to see him come in second behind John McCain.
“There’s a long history of well-known politicians in New Hampshire with statewide name recognition endorsing a presidential candidate and then seeing that candidate lose,” Scala said.
Romney has also received endorsements from several state legislators, including Sen. Russell Prescott of Kingston and House majority leader D.J. Bettencourt of North Salem. Bettencourt’s endorsement sparked a minor controversy—not because of his selection of Romney, but because of the way he expressed it.
Romney first announced Bettencourt’s endorsement in early September. On Dec. 6, Bettencourt sent a letter to the editors of several state newspapers in the form of a press release from the New Hampshire House Majority Office.
“Next month Granite Staters will go to the polls to select a Republican nominee for President,” the letter begins. “I choose Governor Mitt Romney. Not only is Mitt the most conservative candidate who can win against Barack Obama, he is the best candidate.”
No one contests Bettencourt’s right to endorse his preferred candidate, but some question the legality and ethics of sending a letter on behalf of a particular candidate from the House Majority Office on government letterhead, thus implying, perhaps unintentionally, that his endorsement speaks for the entire 400-member House.
In truth, several local legislators have endorsed other candidates. Sen. Nancy Stiles of Hampton is supporting Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, while Deputy House Speaker Pamela Tucker of Greenland supports Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
It wasn’t the first time a New Hampshire endorsement created debate. In the fall of 2007, the State Employees’ Association of New Hampshire endorsed Democratic primary candidate John Edwards. The SEA’s board of directors initially voted to endorse Barack Obama but later reversed its decision and opted for Edwards, angering those who had chosen Obama the first time around. Some SEA members questioned whether a vote among roughly a dozen board members could accurately sum up the sentiments of a union representing 10,000 workers statewide.
Of course, the candidate who won the New Hampshire primary in 2008 was neither Obama nor Edwards—it was Hillary Clinton. Which begs the question: did the union endorsement matter? The SEA endorsement was one of the most coveted in the state, and yet Edwards wound up coming in a distant third here in ’08.
One of this year’s most coveted endorsements came from the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper. The UL endorsed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who was already surging in the polls when the endorsement was announced. About a week later, Foster’s Daily Democrat endorsed Romney.
In the last 25 years, only two candidates endorsed by the Union Leader have gone on to win the Republican nomination: McCain in 2008 and incumbent George W. Bush in 2004. Prior to that, the UL endorsed Steve Forbes in 2000, Pat Buchanan in 1996 and 1992, and Pete DuPont in 1988. In New Hampshire’s 2010 senatorial primary, the UL endorsed Ovide Lamontagne, who lost to Kelly Ayotte.
That’s not a great track record. But Scala said the UL could boost Gingrich with ongoing support from its editorial department.
“(UL publisher) Joe McQuaid is going to use his front page to hammer Mitt Romney,” Scala said. “They’re going to go after Romney negatively as well as support Newt positively.”
Frontrunners like Romney and Gingrich are still vying to land the endorsements of a few influential figures, such as Donald Trump and former candidate Herman Cain, who presumably left his followers searching for direction after he dropped out of the race amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
Other candidates have relied on less conventional endorsements. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, for instance, has earned the support of Joel Salatin, the famous farmer, author and lecturer, who visited the Seacoast in September.
Scala said the only endorsements that really make a difference, though, come from people who are willing to work for their chosen candidate on the ground and convince others to join the cause. Otherwise, it’s difficult for even the most well-respected endorser to transfer his or her own popularity to someone else.
“Voters choose the candidate,” Scala said. “I think it’s rare that you see endorsements make or break somebody in this state.”
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