Congressman Ron Paul has maintained a remarkably strong presence in the polls despite a conspicuously weak presence in the media.

In some respects, presidential primary season is like a long game of Whac-A-Mole. Candidates sporadically emerge from the burrows for a fleeting moment in the sun, until the heavy mallet of public scrutiny hammers them back into the ground.

Rick Perry abruptly stuck his head up in August and, for a while, stood at eye level with Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney. But a series of embarrassing debate flubs (along with a nasty word scrawled on a rock at his hunting camp) sent him reeling back into the depths. Herman Cain then popped out of his hole and climbed the polls, until a flurry of sexual misconduct allegations and debate stumbles bashed him down again. Next came Newt Gingrich, who has surfaced long enough for the public to learn of the hundreds of thousands of dollars in consulting fees he collected from Freddie Mac. 

For the most part, each candidate’s temporary surge has been accompanied by a commensurate spike in media coverage. But one Republican hopeful has steadily maintained a high ranking in the polls, and yet has steadfastly received less coverage from mainstream media outlets than any other major candidate.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul has, in fact, received the least coverage of any 2012 presidential candidate, according to an October report from the Pew Research Center. Paul was the “primary newsmaker” in just 2 percent of all presidential campaign-related stories between May and October—the lowest percentage of any candidate monitored for the report.

Paul, who will be in Portsmouth for a town hall meeting at the Sheraton Harborside Hotel on Nov. 30, is certainly not the only candidate who has suffered from scarce coverage. Michelle Bachmann has complained of being deliberately ignored at debates. Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman have also been brushed aside. And lesser known candidates like Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer haven’t even been invited to debates.

But Paul’s case is unique in that, unlike those others, polls have consistently placed him among the top three Republican primary contenders. The 76-year-old, 12-term congressman and doctor came in second in both New Hampshire (17 percent) and Iowa (19 percent) in a pair of Bloomberg News polls conducted in November. 

Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, said Paul has finished second or third in almost every poll this year. A Granite State Poll released on Nov. 23 put Paul in third place among New Hampshire voters (12 percent), behind only Romney and Gingrich.

What’s more, the October report from the Pew Research Center found that Paul has received the most favorable coverage from bloggers of any candidate, by far. Forty-eight percent of blog conversation about Paul has been positive, the report found, while only 15 percent has been negative and 38 percent has been neutral.

So, why hasn’t Paul been taken seriously by the press? According to Smith, part of the reason is that Paul has long been on the fringe of the Republican Party. He ran for president as a Libertarian in 1988 and, as a Republican member of Congress, he has often split with the party majority.
“He is in the party but not of the party,” Smith said.

That’s precisely why he appeals to some voters who are fed up with the political establishment in Washington, D.C. Newmarket town councilor Phil Nazzaro, who serves on Paul’s Rockingham County leadership team, said Paul predicted the economic and financial crises now plaguing the nation. What separates Paul from his opponents is that he has maintained “a consistent political philosophy” rather than “blowing in the direction of the political winds,” Nazzaro said.

Newmarket resident Jared Roberts, a special education teacher, said Paul is the only politician he trusts. He agrees with many of the congressman’s core principles, including his push for smaller government, his criticism of the Federal Reserve, his opposition to unnecessary military interventions, and his proposal to legalize drugs—“not because he supports drugs, but because he does not support the false ‘war on drugs,’ which has killed far more than drugs have or ever will,” Roberts said. 

Some of the stark differences between Paul and his Republican opponents were borne out in a CNN debate focused on national security on Nov. 22. Paul suggested a dramatic reduction of the U.S. military’s presence around the globe, saying he would bring troops home from commitments overseas as a way to cut government spending. And, in a verbal sparring match with Gingrich, he spoke against the Patriot Act, saying it undermines the liberties of Americans.

In most debates, though, Paul has received fewer questions than other candidates. It’s become a source of frustration for Nazzaro.

“At some point it switches from being mildly annoying to frustrating,” he said. “He’s polling well enough in Iowa and New Hampshire and many of the other states that they certainly should be paying more attention to him.”

To Roberts, the lack of coverage is less frustrating than the public’s dogmatic faith in the sparse information major news outlets have reported.

“The problem is, most people believe whatever small snippet of information they gather from the mainstream and consider it fact. That is more troubling than (Paul’s) lack of unbiased coverage,” he said.

Supporters like Roberts and Nazzaro are encouraged by Paul’s strong network of ardent followers in New Hampshire and elsewhere. Roberts is one of many voters who has volunteered on Paul’s behalf, doing phone banking and door-to-door canvassing. He also attended Paul’s recent town hall meeting in Rochester.

Unlike some other candidates, Paul has made several stops on the Seacoast, visiting downtown Portsmouth as far back as June. He also campaigned here during his 2008 presidential bid, when he finished fifth in the primary.

His supporters are counting on the effectiveness of grassroots campaign tactics to boost him to the top when New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary rolls around on Jan. 10. But, according to Andy Smith of the UNH Survey Center, that may not be enough. Smith said under-covered candidates like Paul need to ratchet up their television advertising to reach as many voters as possible.

“You do have to campaign in kind of a grassroots fashion, but you’ve got to do more than that,” he said. “There’s no way you can reach enough people like that.”

Paul’s supporters have pointed to his victories in numerous straw polls as evidence of his legitimacy (he even won a recent straw poll of New Hampshire schoolchildren). But Smith said such polls are “meaningless,” usually conducted by Tea Party or Libertarian groups that do not represent the general voting public.

What Paul does have going for him is an organized support network and plenty of funding, Smith said. His message has gained traction since 2008, and he’s done relatively well in polls pitting him against Obama in the general election.

Nevertheless, the Republican elite seems to be banking on Romney, who has received key endorsements from prominent New Hampshire politicians like former Gov. John H. Sununu, former Sen. Judd Gregg, U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass, and N.H. House majority leader D.J. Bettencourt.

Romney appears to have a firm grasp on New Hampshire, but Smith said Paul has a “real chance” of finishing as high as second, which would keep him alive in other early primary states.
Nazzaro believes Paul can do even better than that.

“I think his chances are so much better than the mainstream media is making them out to be,” Nazzaro said. “He has, I think, a very strong shot at surprising some people in these first few states and causing a huge momentum shift.”