Front Door Politics: Revenue down, deficit up, stopping the education 'buck' at the State House

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revenue down, deficit up: Numbers are out, and state revenue for February was, to put it politely, as dismal as the weather.

Overall, according to a recent release from the N.H. Department of Administrative Services, collections were more than $16 million below plan—$77.1 million was raised, but that fell 17.5 percent below the $93.4 million projection for the month. February is typically one of the lowest revenue months in the state’s July to June fiscal calendar.

Overall, the state is $23 million, or about 2 percent, below revenue estimates, with four months remaining in the fiscal year.

The monthly revenue report is a must-read for those looking for a snapshot of the health of New Hampshire’s economy—and for anyone trying to gauge the potential size of the budget hole that will have to be filled by Gov. John Lynch and lawmakers.

Last month’s drops in revenue collection hit nearly every sector of the economy, from business profits to rooms and meals to lottery game and ticket sales. The largest category shortfalls were:

• Business taxes at $6.7 million (48 percent) below projections

• Rooms and meals taxes at $2 million (11 percent) below 

• Lottery commission transfer at $1.5 million (23 percent) below 

• Communications tax at $1.1 million (15 percent) below

• Tobacco tax at $1.1 million (9 percent) below 

• Interest & Dividends tax at $1.1 million (43 percent) below 

• Beer tax at $100,000 (11 percent) below 

The two categories above projections were:

• Court fines and fees at $100,000 (9 percent) above

• Insurance tax at $200,000 (4 percent) above

Administrative services commissioner Linda Hodgdon told the Union Leader the February revenue drop was “concerning because we were doing so well. We really need March and April,” which are historically the top two revenue months remaining.

House Speaker William O’Brien (R-Mont Vernon) called on Gov. Lynch “to move by executive order to limit state spending now to fill this gap and on the Executive Council to look closely at any contract that spends state money in light of our fiscal situation. We all need to come together to fix this serious problem.”

Revenue projections have become a hot political issue in the Granite State, and a recently released study by the Pew Center on the States shows that revenue overestimating has become the norm across the country, with the greatest number of budget projection errors coming in the past decade. New Hampshire ranked 10th in the country in revenue errors between the years 1987 and 2009. —Michael McCord

stopping the education “buck” at the State House: On Friday, House Speaker William O’Brien (R-Mont Vernon) threw his support behind a measure that would make the Legislature—not the courts—the final authority on educational standards and funding.

The move comes midway through an extended public hearing on one of New Hampshire’s most challenging public policy debates: a constitutional amendment on education funding. The public hearing continues on Wednesday, March 9, in the House Special Committee on Education Funding Reform.

Sponsored by Rep. David Hess (R-Hooksett), CACR 12 would also allow lawmakers to target education funding to smooth financial disparities among different communities. The amendment attempts to move beyond the state Supreme Court’s 1997 Claremont decision. If approved by the Legislature, CACR 12 would go before New Hampshire voters in 2012.

In his January inaugural address this year, Gov. John Lynch, who has long supported a constitutional amendment to allow for targeted education funding, said such a measure would affirm “our responsibility for education; but gives us the flexibility we need to give every child in every town the opportunity for a quality education.”

In The Nashua Telegraph, Kevin Landrigan reported Sunday on the bid to find the right language that will appeal to Lynch and Senate Republicans. In 2007, Lynch and then-House Speaker Terie Norelli (D-Portsmouth) made a hard push for a targeted funding amendment. However, a majority of Democrats balked at taking oversight authority away from the Supreme Court, which currently has final say on whether the state is living up to its constitutional obligations on education funding. —Michael McCord

 
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