Front Door Politics is a jargon-free weekly legislative update for all citizens affected by New Hampshire laws. Find more at www.frontdoorpolitics.com.

The economic forecast: halfway home

New Hampshire lawmakers heard that the state is “halfway home” in economic recovery measurements at a recent briefing at the State House in Concord.

The full day of economic briefings for a joint House-Senate committee included presentations from six state and regional economists. Dennis Delay, an economist with the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, says the “usual suspects” panel of economists have made these briefings for the past few years to give lawmakers a micro- and macro-economic perspective context as they start creating their own two-year budget for the state.

Compared to the briefings a year ago, Delay tells Front Door Politics, there’s a better sense now of where the economy is going in 2011.

“A year ago we were uncertain about exactly where we were in the economic recovery,” he says. “We are seeing a couple of positive things. We are recovering jobs we lost in the recession and state revenues appear to have stabilized.”

Delay says New Hampshire is “halfway home,” and that the state has made strong progress in economic recovery and jobs.

While Delay believes that state revenues have stabilized, he also told lawmakers from the Ways and Means and Finance committee his assessment, which isn’t a new one, about the long-term “structural deficit,” in which revenues and the economic growth do not meet increased state spending.

He also discussed the importance of the manufacturing sector in the long-term economic health of the state. — Michael McCord

proceed with caution, says one budget hawk

How cautious should lawmakers be when crafting the 2011-2013 biennial budget? Plenty cautious, according to one budget watcher who gave a briefing to a legislative committee on Monday, Jan. 10.

The third and final full day of economic briefings for a joint House-Senate committee included presentations from three experts on the state budget and economy. Charlie Arlinghaus, president of the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy, says, “I think this particular Legislature is prone to caution, and it is an attitude to encourage.”

Arlinghaus, a long-time student of the New Hampshire budget process, says that while the economy may be improving and revenues are likely to rise, “it’s important to proceed carefully. The biggest lesson of the last four years is that it’s easier to rectify (a budget deficit) than having the last-minute catch-up because you were overly optimistic with revenue estimates.”

The state’s plan to “monetize” certain assets through sales or lease arrangements is a recent case of being caught short, as was the attempt to dip into malpractice insurance funds from the Joint Underwriting Association. In both cases, lawmakers figured millions of dollars of income into state balance sheets—over the objections of some of their colleagues—only to learn that the assets were never theirs to claim.

These revelations, coupled with the already difficult task of estimating projected income from things like business taxes, liquor and lottery sales and more, have deepened the state budget deficit. New Hampshire’s money woes are far less menacing than what many other states currently face, but nonetheless they present an imposing challenge that the new budget writing team will have to solve—and that some or all citizens are sure to feel. —Michael McCord, with contributions from Hilary Niles

getting organized for the New Year

Shortly after the House and Senate got into session on Jan. 5, five House Committees started getting organized for the work ahead.

Environment and Agriculture Committee: This 18-member group is chaired by Rep. Robert Haefner (R-Hudson). So far, four bills have been referred to the committee, including House Bill 101, which would establish an industrial hemp program fund.

Judiciary Committee: This 18-member group is chaired by Rep. Robert Rowe (R-Amherst). Among the three bills referred so far to the committee, one Constitutional Amendment proposal (CACR2) would allow the Legislature to set the length of service terms for judges.

Municipal and County Government Committee: This 17-member group is chaired by Rep. Beverly Ferrante (R-Derry). Among the 11 bills so far referred to the committee, House Bill 108 would authorize the town of Hampton to appoint a tree warden.

Resources, Recreation and Development Committee: This 17-member group is chaired by Rep. Andrew Renzullo (R-Hudson). Nine bills have been referred to the committee so far, including House Bill 35, which would authorize the state to purchase five private dams in the Connecticut Lakes Headwaters Tract.

Ways and Means: This committee is chaired by Rep. Stephen Stepanek (R-Milford). In addition to the organizational agenda, this 20-member group will learn about the revenue process from the Legislative Budget Assistant Office. Among the handful of bills that have been referred to the committee, House Bill 36 would reduce the fee for copies of birth certificates and House Bill 68 would establish a commission to study reducing the interest and dividends tax rate for residents over age 65. —Michael McCord