Gov. John Lynch, one of the most popular political figures in New Hampshire history, will not run for reelection in 2012.

Democrat John Lynch became New Hampshire’s 80th governor in January 2005. Who would’ve guessed that by the time his current term expires at the end of 2012, he will have served eight years as the Granite State’s top executive? That makes him New Hampshire’s longest tenured governor since John Taylor Gilman, who served 11 one-year terms from 1794 to 1805 (and three more from 1813 to 1816).

And throughout his eight years, Lynch has enjoyed unwavering popularity across party lines. He has been reelected three times and would be predicted to win a fifth term in 2012 if he were running. But he isn’t running.

Appearing at Northwest Elementary School in Manchester on the morning of Sept. 15, flanked by his wife Susan, several staff members and a roomful of fourth graders, Lynch announced that he would not seek reelection next year.

“I will keep working hard every day for the next 16 months to serve the people of our state, but I will not run for reelection as governor of New Hampshire,” he said.

The announcement comes a full nine months before the filing deadline for gubernatorial candidates, paving the way for a wide-open race.

Republicans, still reveling in their monumental victories in the 2010 elections and eager to unseat President Obama next year, suddenly have a much better shot at taking over the governorship in 2012. By then, the state will have had a Democratic governor for 13 of the last 15 years.

In the meantime, Democrats and Republicans, alike, have taken time to reflect on Lynch’s historic tenure. Everyone from Republican House Speaker William O’Brien and majority leader D.J. Bettencourt to Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter to Republican U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta and Sen. Kelly Ayotte issued statements thanking Lynch for his service and dedication.

Lynch, himself, cited a long list of accomplishments, including his work to pass new ethics laws, make kindergarten accessible to all children, dramatically lower the high school dropout rate, balance the state budget, establish an effective emergency response system, protect civil liberties, and launch clean energy initiatives. He noted that New Hampshire has maintained one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country throughout the economic recession. 

So, why isn’t he running for reelection in 2012? According to Lynch, it’s simply time for a change of leadership.

“Democracy demands periodic change. To refresh and revive itself, democracy needs new leaders and new ideas,” he said. “The students who were fourth graders when I took office will be graduating from high school next year. It is time for the next generation of leadership for New Hampshire.”

He has not yet offered further discussion about his decision.

Born in Waltham, Mass., Lynch earned his undergraduate degree from the University of New Hampshire in 1974. He holds an M.B.A. from the Harvard Business School, where he later served as director of admissions, and a law degree from Georgetown University. Prior to becoming governor, he was president and CEO of Knoll Inc., a national furniture manufacturer. Now 58, he lives in Hopkinton with his wife and three children.

Lynch was first elected in 2004 over Republican one-term incumbent Craig Benson. It was the beginning of a major shift to blue in New Hampshire, where Democrats won majorities in the state House of Representatives and Senate in 2006. Lynch won reelection that year by the widest margin in state history, over Republican Jim Coburn. He was reelected in another landslide in 2008, over Republican Joe Kenney, and Democrats retained their majorities in the House and Senate.

In 2010, former state health commissioner John Stephen won the party nomination. But, although Republicans achieved sweeping victories in almost every other office that year, Lynch defeated Stephen by almost 35,000 votes to win a fourth term.

Even as the general public’s opinion of Democrats has continued to sour, Lynch has remained remarkably popular. In a poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center this summer, Lynch scored a 65 percent approval rating. Even 52 percent of Republicans approved of Lynch’s performance. Those numbers suggest that Lynch would have been a favorite against any Republican contender in 2012.

“(When) half the opposing party approves of your job, you’re in good shape,” said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center.

According to Smith, Lynch set the tone for his tenure with swift responses to the devastating floods of 2005 and 2006. Lynch was visible on the front lines, serving coffee to emergency workers and directing state assets to repair roads and houses.

“I think that really went a long way in humanizing him and making him seem like somebody who cared about fixing the problems these people were having, and not doing it for political reasons,” Smith said.

Lynch has also earned the trust of voters in both parties with his modest approach and his moderate stance. Smith called Lynch a “conservative Democrat,” noting that he never strayed too far to the left, even during the four years when Democrats held large majorities in the state legislature.

“Lynch hasn’t been a grandstander. He hasn’t been looking for the limelight and claiming credit for things,” Smith said. “His political philosophy has put him right in the center of New Hampshire politics.”

In fact, Smith said, Lynch’s biggest adversaries have often come from within his own party. Some Democrats have been frustrated by the governor’s steadfast opposition to a sales or income tax in New Hampshire, which has kept Lynch in the good graces of many Republican voters.

He’s also remained in the middle of the road on social issues. He supported a Republican bill this year to expand capital punishment and make it applicable to home invasion murders. But he vetoed a bill that would have required pregnant teens to consult their parents before getting an abortion. He also vetoed a Democratic medical marijuana bill in 2009. He supported civil unions in the state but voiced opposition to gay marriage, although he signed a gay marriage bill into law in 2009.

Education has been another area of pride for Lynch. He successfully raised the state’s high school dropout age from 16 to 18. Largely as a result of that law, the dropout rate has decreased by 60 percent. Lynch continues to work toward a constitutional amendment on education funding.
Portsmouth Mayor Tom Ferrini said Lynch’s work on education has been felt locally. He noted that Lynch visited Portsmouth High School during his campaign to lower the dropout rate.

Ferrini has worked with Lynch both as mayor and as a member of the governor’s Gaming Study Commission. He praised Lynch for listening carefully to his constituents and addressing their concerns appropriately. He also commended the governor for taking a stand against some recent bills.

“His vetoes of absolutely horrendous legislation have hopefully prevented or at least forestalled those laws from going into effect,” Ferrini said, specifically referencing Lynch’s veto of a bill to expand the use of deadly force in New Hampshire (the Legislature has since voted to override that veto).

House minority leader Terie Norelli, too, lauded Lynch’s opposition to Republican-sponsored legislation that she views as extreme. Norelli, of Portsmouth, has been a House member throughout Lynch’s tenure and served two terms as House Speaker. She said Lynch has continued to strive for bipartisan solutions even while faced with hostile opposition in the Republican-led House and Senate.

“I certainly think, particularly given the political tone and the political environment these days, that it is remarkable that he has remained respectful and thoughtful and bipartisan and has continued the same approach he has always had, which is to work across the aisle,” Norelli said.

Asked if working across the aisle has become more difficult with Republicans holding veto-proof majorities, Norelli laughed out loud.

“It has become incredibly difficult,” she said. “There is less willingness to have a dialogue, less willingness to compromise, (and) positions have become entrenched in ideology. And yet (Lynch) continues to try to take a middle ground, to reach out to Republicans and Democrats alike.”

Former state Sen. Maggie Hassan, a prospective candidate to replace Lynch in 2013, agreed the governor has taken a consistently bipartisan approach. Hassan, of Exeter, was first elected the same year as Lynch and served three terms in the Senate.

“He was incredibly even-keeled, very smart, always interested in hearing new ideas and opinions and always did what was best for the people of New Hampshire,” she said.

Hassan said she has not yet decided whether she will run for the Democratic nomination in 2012 but will make an announcement “in the near future.”

“I have been focusing on reflecting on the governor’s legacy and want to make sure we all focus on thanking him for his service,” she said.

Ferrini’s name has also come up as a potential Democratic candidate for governor. He announced last month that he will not seek reelection to the Portsmouth City Council in November and said he would consider running for higher office in the future. At this point, though, Ferrini said he has no plans to run.

“I’m certainly interested in running for higher office, and one might be governor, however I have no plans to run at this time,” he said.

Among other potential Democratic candidates are former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand and Mark Connolly, former director of the N.H. Bureau of Securities Regulation and Financial Resource Management.

But, according to Andrew Smith, whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be the underdog come November 2012.

“Anybody other than Lynch lowers their chances,” Smith said. “It’s going to make it a very difficult task for any Democrat to win the seat this time around.”

With the economy still languishing, Smith noted, the president’s party is taking the bulk of the blame. Plus, Republican candidates can ride the fundraising coattails of presidential hopefuls who are spending ample time in the state. Smith pointed to Republican gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne, who has hosted several presidential candidates at his home.

What’s more, most of the speculative Republican candidates are better known than Democrats in the running. Lamontagne ran for U.S. Senate in 2010 and narrowly lost in the primary to Kelly Ayotte (he also ran for governor in 1996 but lost to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen). John Stephen also could try to avenge his loss in 2010. Other high-profile Republicans who could enter the race include former U.S. Rep. and current state Sen. Jeb Bradley, and Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas.

Asked what Democrats need to do to stand a chance in the general election, Smith had a blunt answer: “Raise lots and lots of money, quickly.”

But Norelli doesn’t think the Democrats’ chances are so bad. She believes the public is becoming increasingly aware of the Republican legislature’s “extreme social agenda” and “draconian” measures that she said have led to further job cuts.

Hassan is hopeful that voters will recognize that many of the Republicans now in office do not represent their interests.

“One of the things I really hope voters will pay attention to is what the record of this legislature has been like. And there will be a contrast, it seems to me, between the vision that this extreme group has as opposed to the vision of the center,” she said.

But Republicans have their own political ammunition. They have consistently accused Lynch of overtaxing, overspending and driving up the deficit, and they will level similar accusations against any Democratic candidate.

“We intend to remind the public just where (Democrats) stood on the more than 100 tax and fee increases, the deficits, the disastrous spending budgets and the attempt to reduce spending made by the current legislature,” said Republican Executive Committee member Jim Foley, in a statement.

For the next 16 months, though, Lynch will remain in the highest seat in Concord, and he’s still got work to do.

“New Hampshire is the greatest state in the greatest country in the world. I will keep working to keep it that way,” he said.