senatorial and congressional races compete for funding in NH

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen’s U.S. Senate campaign announced last month that it had raised more than $1.6 million in the second quarter of 2008, breaking the record for money raised by a federal candidate in New Hampshire.

The former governor says her fundraising success reflects residents’ desire for change. “People are ready for a leader in Washington who puts New Hampshire families, not special interests, first,” she said in a press release.

That statement was a dig at incumbent opponent John Sununu, who Democrats accuse of accepting $45,000 in campaign contributions from Alaskan Sen. Ted Stevens’ Northern Lights Political Action Committee. Following Stevens’ indictment on seven felony counts of filing false financial disclosures, Sununu agreed to return $10,000 that the Northern Lights PAC contributed in the 2008 election cycle. But Democrats feel he should return the remaining $35,000 collected during previous campaigns.

But does campaign funding decide elections? And should voters be concerned about where campaign contributions come from?

“The amount of money that you raise doesn’t always determine whether you win or not,” said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center. He noted that congressional candidates who spend more than $2 million on a campaign typically wind up losing. “That’s because if they have to spend that much money, they’re in trouble anyway. There comes a point where spending more money doesn’t buy you any more votes,” he said.

Although Shaheen had raised close to $4.2 million as of June 30, she had also spent more than $2 million, leaving her with less than $2.2 million on hand, according to the Federal Electoin Commission. Sununu, who bested Shaheen in the 2002 Senate race, had spent less than $1 million and had more than $5 million on hand, including funds that carried over from this 2002 campaign.

Smith said incumbents typically have an easier time raising funds than challengers. Special interest groups want to donate to whichever candidate they expect to win, he said, and that’s usually the incumbent.

“Since incumbents usually win, they typically get greater funding,” Smith said. “People who have an interest in government want to back a winner.”

But the race between Shaheen and Sununu is a little different. Democrats want to expand their slim majority in the Senate, and they see Sununu as one of the more vulnerable incumbent Republicans. Therefore, both parties are likely to invest a good chunk of time and money into the race. Smith said he thinks both candidates will have more than enough money heading into the general election.

Claiming that she is the candidate who will bring real change to Washington, D.C., Shaheen has attempted to portray Sununu as a puppet of President Bush and large oil companies. It is for this reason that the Shaheen campaign pounced on Sununu’s ties to Ted Stevens’ PAC, which has received tens of thousands of dollars from Veco Corp., an oil company at the center of Stevens’ indictments.

“As he continues to fund his campaign in New Hampshire with corrupt oil money, he’s really showing New Hampshire voters where his priorities are, and it’s with big oil, not New Hampshire families,” said Shaheen spokesperson Kate Bedingfield.

While Democrats criticized Sununu for accepting money from Stevens, state Republicans responded by lashing out at Democratic U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter for accepting $10,000 from N.Y. Congressman Charles Rangel’s PAC. The U.S. House voted last week not to censure Rangel for allegedly receiving cut apartment rents from a campaign donor. Shea-Porter voted against censuring Rangel, a Democrat.

“The Congresswoman needs to make it up to New Hampshire voters by demonstrating to them she is not beholden to Rangel and other (Nancy) Pelosi colleagues, by returning the $10,000 donation she received from Rangel’s PAC,” former Congressman Jeb Bradley said in a release.

But Smith suggested that these sorts of allegations might be overblown. He noted that Sununu is one of many candidates who have received contributions from Stevens’ PAC. It is a common practice for senators or former senators to form PACs that donate to candidates of the same party, he said.

Furthermore, lobbyists tend to donate to politicians who already share their political or philosophical ideals, and research has shown that candidates do not necessarily make policy decisions based on who donates to their campaigns, Smith said.

Political action committees are typically created by interest groups, large businesses, unions and quasi-governmental organizations, Smith said. PACs can also be started by one or two people with an interest in government.

Among PACs that have donated to Shaheen’s campaign are the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union PAC, the Naral Pro-choice PAC, the Solar Energy Industries Association PAC and the United Liquors Ltd Good Government Committee, among dozens of others.

Numbers filed with the FEC show that 79 percent of Shaheen’s finances had come from individual contributions, while 14 percent had come from PACs. Only 63 percent of Sununu’s funds had come from individuals, while 34 percent had come from PACs. But for both candidates, only 28 percent of individual contributions had come from within New Hampshire, while the remaining 72 percent had come from out of state.

According to Smith, those percentages are fairly typical. Democrats running for Senate tend to reach out to sources in cities like Washington, D.C., New York, San Francisco and Las Angeles, while Republicans tap into sources in Washington, D.C., New York, Texas and Florida. The finances for high profile Senate races run so high, he said, that it would be nearly impossible to raise it all in-state.

The numbers look very different in New Hampshire’s Congressional race. As of June 30, Shea Porter had raised about $925,000, while Bradley, her closes opponent, had raised just over $700,000. Bradley’s primary opponent, former state Health Commissioner John Stephen, had raised about $475,000.

Sixty-three percent of Shea-Porter’s funds had come from individuals, and 53 percent of them were from New Hampshire. Only 42 percent of Bradley’s contributions had come from individuals, but 90 percent of them were from New Hampshire. Stephen’s numbers are perhaps the most striking, with an overwhelming 98 percent coming from individual contributions, 88 percent of which were from New Hampshire.

Smith said it is difficult for non-incumbents to raise out-of-state funds in Congressional races. Incumbents win about 95 percent of all Congressional races, he said. Even in 2006, when Democrats flooded into Congress, more than 90 percent of the winners nationwide were incumbents.

A poll released by the UNH Survey Center on July 23 revealed a very close Senate race in New Hampshire. Although Shaheen held a significant lead in polls for most of the last year, the latest results showed that Sununu has narrowed the gap, with 46 percent favoring Shaheen and 42 percent pulling for Sununu. An additional 10 percent were undecided.

Bedingfield said the Shaheen campaign is not worried about those numbers. “There’s a new public poll out every other week, so we don’t put much stock in any one number,” she said. “Polls will continue to fluctuate from now until election day.”

Bedingfield finds Shaheen’s record-breaking fundraising effort in the second quarter of 2008 more telling. She said 81 percent of donations during the quarter came from small-dollar donors, with an average donation of $178. Shaheen received donations from 7,400 individual donors during the quarter, she added, and the campaign raised more than $200,000 in the last five days of the quarter.

Bedingfield said Shaheen’s largest campaign expenses include paying for her local offices and staff members all over the state, as well as television and mail advertising. Shaheen has aired two television ads, so far. 
Representatives from Sununu’s campaign did not return calls late last week.

Under federal guidelines, individual contributors are allowed to donate up to $2,300 to a campaign, while PACs are allowed to contribute up to $5,000. Contributions can be made separately to a candidate’s primary and general election campaigns, meaning an individual can ultimately donate up to $4,600 and a PAC can give up to $10,000. Primary day for the Senate and Congressional races is Tuesday, Sept. 9, and the general election is Tuesday, Nov. 4.

Bedingfield declined to reveal whether Shaheen had any specific fundraising goals for the third quarter, but the campaign is forging ahead with some unique methods. Musician Bonnie Raitt will play a fundraising concert for Shaheen on Tuesday, Aug. 12, at the Capitol Center for the Arts in Concord, with tickets ranging from $60 to $250.

To check candidates’ funds and see who has donated to their campaigns, visit www.fec.gov.