candidate endorsements are rolling in, and a recent union endorsement remains shrouded in controversy—but, does it really matter?

what’s in an endorsement?

The State Employees’ Association of New Hampshire ignited a wave of controversy last week when it apparently reversed its original decision and endorsed former U.S. Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) for president. According to some SEA board members, the Board of Directors originally voted 7-5 in favor of U.S. Rep. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). A second vote, taken about a week later, favored Edwards by a count of 9-8.

Edwards accepted the endorsement amid a firestorm of questions from media and union members skeptical of the vote’s legitimacy. And, with a membership of 10,000 workers statewide, many question whether such a narrow margin of victory accurately reflects the members’ collective opinion.

The SEA’s endorsement of Edwards was the latest in a string of well-publicized endorsements over the past two weeks. Former Arkansas Gov. Bill Richardson traveled to Concord on Tuesday, Oct. 30, to officially add his name to the N.H. primary ballot. On the same day, he received what he called a “crucial” endorsement from Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, a prominent Seacoast Democrat.

At about the same time, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney received a key endorsement from U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg. It was a welcome bonus for Romney, who was already ahead in polls for the Republican nomination in New Hampshire and Iowa.
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton has received a number of endorsements from important New Hampshire Democrats, including House Speaker Terie Norelli, of Portsmouth, state Sen. Maggie Hassan, of Exeter, and state Sen. Iris Estabrook, of Dover. Norelli is co-chair of the N.Y. senator’s campaign in New Hampshire.

But, how valuable are such endorsements? Do a candidate’s chances dramatically improve when he is sanctioned by the nation’s largest union? Does the backing of a well-known senator make the difference in a tight GOP race? Can the endorsement of one mayor turn a “second-tier” candidate into a heavyweight contender in the N.H. primary? Put simply, can an endorsement change a voter’s mind?

“It certainly can,” said Marchand, who will serve as Richardson’s senior campaign advisor in New Hampshire. During his recent campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. John Sununu, Marchand received endorsements from more than 60 state representatives, along with several state senators. (He later bowed out of that race and put his support behind former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, a late entry into the senate race.)

Marchand believes endorsements from political figures can impact voters’ decisions.

“Endorsements matter for two reasons. One, they do show momentum. If prominent individuals around the state are coalescing around a candidate, that’s a sign that that candidate is doing the right things,” he said. The second reason involves something Marchand learned on his own campaign trail. “Not all endorsements are created equal. Any endorsement is positive, but the ones that matter most are ones from individuals who can work and organize to the aid of a candidate,” he said.

Elizabeth Ossoff, a psychology professor at Saint Anselm College with a research focus on political behavior, said endorsements can influence voter opinion, depending on who the endorsement comes from.

“If the voter considers the individual making the endorsement a reputable expert, someone who carries some weight in terms of their own political expertise, then that can potentially have an impact on the way they view that candidate,” Ossoff said.
While Marchand’s localized endorsement is likely to resonate with Democrats living in the Portsmouth area, the value of his support wanes as you get farther away from the Seacoast, she said. An endorsement from someone like Sen. Gregg, however, could influence voters across the state, remaining equally salient in Concord, Manchester, Nashua and elsewhere.

“I think salience is the key here,” Ossoff said.

Gregg announced his endorsement of Romney on Monday, Oct. 29, posting a statement on his Web site. “Mitt Romney embodies New Hampshire’s values—values that stress government living within its means, lower taxes, a stronger military and stronger families,” the statement reads. “Governor Romney is the strong leader we need to lead America forward. He has the experience, vision and values needed to be our next President.”

Because Gregg is not up for reelection until 2010, he has not suffered the same level of unceasing attacks as Sununu, who Democrats have accused of being a rubber stamp for President Bush. As Sununu seeks reelection in 2008, he may avoid publicly coming out in support of a presidential candidate. Attaching himself to a particular campaign could injure his reputation with some voters, Ossoff said.

On the flip side, candidates sometimes avoid publicizing certain endorsements if they do not feel it will benefit their campaigns. It is not uncommon for public figures to endorse a certain candidate because of a personal agenda, she said.
“Now, is it in the candidate’s best interest to make a big show of that endorsement? It depends on who’s endorsing them,” Ossoff said.

the union dilemma

Ossoff said the SEA endorsement could have a wider reach than Marchand’s or Gregg’s. Edwards, Obama and Clinton all hoped to reel in the union’s support in a crucial state. Edwards is the official winner—but did he really win? And, does anyone really care?

According to SEA board member Rodney Woodill, an initial vote among the SEA Board of Directors was held on Oct. 23, with Obama beating Edwards by two votes. SEA President Gary Smith instructed the board members to remain quiet about the vote until he could contact the Obama campaign, Woodill said. But, Smith later called for a revote, in which board members were split 8-8 between Edwards and Obama. Smith cast the deciding vote in favor of Edwards, according to Woodill.

Unlike 2004, when the State Employees International Union endorsed Vermont Gov. Howard Dean for president, the national SEIU decided to remain neutral in the 2008 primary, allowing state branches like the N.H. SEA to decide for themselves. At least 12 state councils have selected Edwards so far, while at least four have endorsed Obama, including his home state of Illinois.

In order to be considered for an SEIU council endorsement, candidates must meet a number of criteria. They must propose a detailed healthcare plan and be interviewed by SEIU members. They also must have participated in the union’s “Walk a Day” program and appeared at the Member Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C.

In New Hampshire, the union’s Political Education Committee recommended Edwards to the Board of Directors, following a 10-5 vote of committee members, Woodill explained. Woodill accused the committee of violating Robert’s Rules of Order Newly Revised, a nationally recognized book on parliamentary procedure. He made a motion for a vote on Oct. 23, which Obama won 7-5. According to Woodill, Smith was present at the vote and gave no indication that it was not legitimate.
“The night after that 7-5 vote in favor of Obama, we were told to stay quiet until Smith could contact the candidate and set it up for him to be at the convention. What in turn happened is, evidently, he called an Executive Board meeting of the president, the two first vice presidents, the treasurer and the secretary and overruled our vote,” Woodill said.

Woodill, who backed Obama in the initial vote, was unable to attend the second vote because of a family emergency. He does not know why Smith called for a second vote, although news reports have indicated it involved a procedural error in the first vote.

Woodill thinks the second vote was illegitimate because the motion to reconsider the original vote was not made by at least two board members who voted on the winning side in the first vote, as demanded by Robert’s Rules. Woodill said Smith never gave him a reason for discounting the first vote, but told him to “stop playing (his) Robert’s Rules bullshit.”
Numerous calls to the SEA requesting an interview with Smith or Political Education Committee chair Ken Roos were not returned last week.

A poll taken among a sampling of SEA members during a state convention in Nashua on Saturday, Oct. 27, resulted in 23 votes for Edwards, 19 for Obama and 14 for Clinton. But, Woodill has come to the conclusion that the SEIU should not endorse any candidates. He noted that the poll at the convention surveyed only a tiny fraction of the union’s membership, and opinions are heavily mixed among the 10,000 total state members. Nevertheless, Woodill believes SEIU endorsements bear weight in the public’s eye.

“Let’s face it, the eyes of the country are on New Hampshire,” Woodill said. “Are we truly moving in the best interest of all our constituents? The individual person needs to make that choice, because it’s all about rights. That’s what a union is all about.”

the voters decide

Although Richardson is still considered a long-shot for the party nomination, he is steadily climbing polls in New Hampshire and Iowa, Marchand said. The mayor, who has opted not to run for reelection to the Portsmouth City Council in November, said he endorsed Richardson because the former governor is a fiscal conservative and an environmental progressive who plans to use diplomacy to get U.S. troops out of Iraq quickly.

As he travels the state in support of Richardson, Marchand will be in competition with Democratic allies like Norelli, who is actively campaigning on behalf of Clinton. Marchand called Norelli a personal friend and said he does not expect their political differences to create tension within the party. At the end of the day, he said, Democrats still have to work together.

“You have to separate the personal from the politics,” Marchand said.

Norelli is currently out of the country and could not be reached for comment for this article. When she announced her endorsement of Clinton in August, she said the N.Y. senator’s experience and intelligence made her the most qualified Democrat in the field.

Marchand has worked as a consultant on a number of state government campaigns, including those of Executive Councilor Beverly Hollingworth and state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark in 2006. He believes his experience as a campaign consultant, elected city official and Senate candidate will make him a valuable asset to Richardson’s team. He also believes that his candidate has a legitimate shot at winning New Hampshire.

“I wouldn’t be with him if I didn’t think he had a chance to do exceedingly well in New Hampshire and the other early states,” he said.

While much of the media’s primary coverage has revolved around a variety of seemingly insignificant factors, like which candidate has the most money, who has the most expensive haircut and who is ahead in the polls, conscientious voters who focus on candidates’ policies are less likely to be swayed by endorsements, Ossoff said.

“When they are really thinking and processing the information in a more pressing and deep way, those endorsements have less of an impact,” Ossoff said. “It’s not going to be the thing to make or break a candidate.”

And, New Hampshire is rife with voters who are keenly attentive to the real issues.

“By and large, voters in New Hampshire do pay more attention,” Ossoff said. “Even though these things may have an initial impact, the candidates still need to sell their message well, because voters in New Hampshire do traditionally pay attention.”