as Congress pushes new legislation, study predicts more severe storms and floods due to global warming

On Dec. 6, the U.S. House of Representatives passed “The Energy Independence and Security Act” by a vote of 235 to 181. The legislation sets strict mandates for energy policy, improving the environment and reducing dependence on foreign oil. The bill, which received support from N.H. Representatives Carol Shea Porter and Paul Hodes, will increase national fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks to 35 miles per gallon by the year 2020 and establishes national standards for renewable energy production.

If approved by the Senate and signed by the president—both questionable scenarios—the energy bill is projected to cut 126 million metric tons of global warming pollution per year by 2020—the equivalent of taking 20 million cars off the road. It would also save about 1.2 million barrels of oil a day in 2020, while rolling back more than $13 billion in tax breaks for oil companies. (On Dec. 7, The U.S. Senate voted to hold further debate on the bill, with both of New Hampshire’s Republican senators voting not to end debate.)

But, many Republicans have criticized the bill for unfairly targeting the oil industry and potentially raising taxes and energy costs for consumers, at least in the short term. A possible filibuster in the Senate and veto from the president could prevent the bill from ever becoming law.

Only a couple of days earlier, the U.S. Senate Environment & Public Works Committee passed “America’s Climate Security Act,” a global warming bill introduced by Senators Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and John Warner (R-VA). The bipartisan legislation is intended to make substantial, long-term cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, thereby lessening the effects of climate change.
U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), chair of the Environment & Public Works Committee, called passage of the bill the greatest legislative accomplishment of her 30-year political career. The bill, which received strong support from a number of environmental groups and religious leaders, now moves forward to the Senate floor. Boxer praised the legislation for fighting global warming while keeping the economy strong.

“This bill is the most far-reaching global warming bill in the world and I am grateful to Senators Lieberman and Warner for breaching the partisan divide and unleashing a spirit of cooperation that puts the wind at our backs,” Boxer said in a statement. “America is taking bold steps to avert the catastrophe that awaits our children and grandchildren if we do nothing.”
But some environmental groups fear the new legislation will not do enough to curb global warming and prevent its potentially disastrous consequences.

The two historic votes on Capitol Hill came just days after Environment New Hampshire released an alarming report about global warming and its relation to the rising frequency of intense storms in the United States, which has been felt most acutely in New England.

Anyone who has lived in New Hampshire for the last couple of years will remember the Mother’s Day floods that wreaked havoc on the region in May 2006. The floods, which resulted from several days of heavy rainfall, closed hundreds of roads, displaced thousands of residents and caused millions of dollars worth of damage to roads, businesses and homes. Heavy rain ignited another flood disaster in the region in April 2007, with similar results.

If Environment New Hampshire’s research is accurate, we could be in for even worse flooding in the future. The state-based environmental advocacy group held a press conference on Tuesday, Dec. 4, to announce its findings.

“Global warming is already beginning to affect life here in New Hampshire, across the country and around the world. Average temperatures have increased worldwide, species are on the move and glaciers are melting,” said Piper Crowell, field associate for Environment New Hampshire. “Our message today is clear: At the rate we are going, what was once the storm of the decade will soon feel like just another downpour.”

In its study, titled “When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United States,” Environment New Hampshire obtained precipitation records from more than 3,000 weather stations in 48 states across the country, examining trends in the frequency of extreme storms between 1948 and 2006. In order to be qualified as “extreme,” the storms had to have an average recurrence of no less than one year, meaning the group essentially selected the 59 largest storms that occurred at each weather station during the 59-year period of analysis. The results were ominous.

Nationwide, the frequency of storms with extreme levels of rain or snowfall increased by about 24 percent between 1948 and 2006, according to the report. The trend was most pronounced in New England, where the frequency increased by 61 percent. New Hampshire had the second sharpest increase of any state in the nation, leaping by a staggering 83 percent. (The state with the largest increase was Rhode Island, at 88 percent, while Massachusetts came in third, at 67 percent.)

As alarming as the numbers sound, they are very much in line with scientists’ predictions about the impacts of global warming. As the surface temperature of the earth rises, water evaporates faster. And, as the temperature of the air increases, the atmosphere is able to hold more water vapor. The combination of these two factors creates clouds that are exceptionally rich with moisture, resulting in storms with higher moisture content and higher rates of precipitation. In short, when storms hit, they are increasingly likely to dump extreme quantities of rain or snow. 

The most obvious consequence of such massive storms is severe flooding. But, intense rainstorms can also cause crop damage, erosion and pollution of waterways from runoff. Unfortunately, the storms will not necessarily add to the nation’s water supply. According to the report, the intense storms represent sudden spikes that have interspersed an overall decrease in precipitation in some areas. Current trends suggest that severe storms will likely come between lengthy intervals of drought.

And it’s only expected to get worse.  

“Scientists tell us that the trend toward more intense precipitation is only beginning. If we continue to release greater amounts of global warming pollution each year, we can expect a growing number of extreme storms in the future,” Crowell said. “The implications of more frequent rain and snowstorms are serious. In the 20th century, flooding caused more property damage and loss of life than any form of natural disaster in the United States.”

Portsmouth Fire Chief Christopher LeClaire confirmed that there has been a sharp increase in local emergencies connected to severe storms in recent years.

“We are seeing, certainly, more rainstorms. We’ve certainly had more flooding issues in the past three or four years than I’ve seen in the last 20 years,” LeClaire said. “It is a serious situation, we take it seriously and we’ll continue to put it into our planning efforts.”

LeClaire, who also serves as emergency management coordinator for Portsmouth, credited city staff for making infrastructure improvements that prevented the April floods from being more harmful than they could have been. He also noted that the Seacoast has established evacuation routes in case of emergencies at the Seabrook Station nuclear plant. Those same routes could be used in the case of major floods. The region also has hazard mitigation plans specifically designed for wetlands and coastal areas that are susceptible to flooding. Although the precipitation threats posed by global warming are serious, LeClaire believes Portsmouth is prepared. “We have that well in hand,” he said.

Nevertheless, according to Environment New Hampshire’s report, the United States must take drastic measures to reduce emissions of pollutants that cause global warming. The report calls for the country to cut down at least 15 percent of its harmful emissions by 2020 and at least 80 percent by 2050. The legislation approved last week is a step in the right direction, Crowell said, but it might not do enough to prevent the worst effects of global warming.

“Specifically, the (Lieberman-Warner bill’s) current pollution reduction targets fall short of what the science says is necessary, and the bill gives away far too many subsidies to polluters,” she said.

The Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 is projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 19 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, and up to 63 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. If we are to prevent global warming from devastating the nation, Congress will have to do better than that, Crowell said.

Environment New Hampshire urged Shea Porter and Hodes to speak out in favor of strengthening the bill introduced by Lieberman and Warner. The organization also urges U.S. Senators Judd Gregg and John Sununu to cosponsor the Global Warming Pollution Act—the only legislation in Congress that would reduce pollution fast enough to protect future generations from global warming, according to Crowell.

Sara Brown, chair of the Stewardship of the Earth Committee at St. John’s Episcopal Church in Portsmouth, agrees that global warming cannot be addressed without strong leadership at the highest levels of government. Although the Stewardship of the Earth Committee is focused on encouraging individual action, Brown encourages legislators to enact tough policies that will prevent natural disasters from escalating in the future.

“Dealing with climate change is not going to happen just by individuals changing their light bulbs and trying to reduce, haphazardly, their carbon emissions. It’s a piece of the puzzle, but it’s gonna be a very small piece if we don’t have the leadership,” Brown said.

Shea Porter believes the energy bill that passed through the House last week is a significant stride in the right direction.
“These measures won’t solve the problem, but they’re a good step forward,” Shea Porter said in a release. “If we begin by cutting down on pollution from cars and aggressively investing in alternative energy, I believe that we can cut carbon emissions by 80 percent by the year 2050.”

Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand believes that politicians who are against strict global warming legislation have leaned on false assumptions—such as detrimental impacts on the economy—for their arguments. Although many detractors point to the prohibitive cost of taking measures to prevent climate change, Marchand emphasized the long term ramifications of not taking action. He believes that policy makers at the local, state and federal levels can make decisions that offer fiscal and environmental benefits.

“It is not the case, and it is a false choice, that leaders have to choose between economic responsibility and environmental responsibility. We’re at a point now where they’re actually one and the same—that being environmentally responsible is the fiscally responsible thing to do,” Marchand said. “I think one of the components of leadership is being able to identify, proactively, the cost of inaction when we’re making public policy decisions.”

Marchand stressed that raising fuel economy standards will not only benefit the environment, but will keep the country’s automotive industry on the cutting edge of technology that is bound to become more prevalent around the world. Companies in Europe and Asia are already introducing fuel innovations that help customers save on rising gas prices, he said.

Although some people have questioned the direct link between climate change and severe weather, a research team at the National Climatic Center documented evidence indicating that “historical trends of increasing very heavy precipitation are linked to global warming,” according to a report released in 2005. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded earlier this year that human influence has contributed to more frequent extreme precipitation events, and that increasingly frequent storms with heavy precipitation will probably continue to intensify in the future. At the same time, the IPCC predicts that, if warming persists, the percentage of land suffering from severe drought will be 30 times greater by the end of the century than it is today.

Most experts seem to agree that some of the effects of global warming are irreversible at this point, but that it is not too late to avert more dire impacts if the nation’s legislative bodies take action now.

“We can stop this from becoming larger than it really should be,” Brown said.

Crowell acknowledged that meeting the emission reduction targets laid out in Environment New Hampshire’s report is no easy task, but she believes it can be done with appropriate legislation. It’s up to Congress to see that such legislation is passed.
“These reductions are challenging but achievable, and we already have the energy efficiency and renewable energy technology we need to get started. But to make these reductions a reality, we need leadership from Congress,” Crowell said.

In its report, Environment New Hampshire made a number of policy recommendations that could help the country reduce global warming trends. The most obvious is establishing mandatory limits on emissions of global warming pollution. The report notes that the United States is responsible for 28 percent of all human-caused emissions of global warming pollutants in the world, dwarfing the next highest emitters, Russia and China, each of which is responsible for just 8 percent of the total.
Another recommendation is to auction 100 percent of emission allowances in any cap and trade program, rather than distributing allowances to polluters for free. If auctioned, revenue from the allowances could be used to encourage a clean energy economy and compensate consumers for the cost of the program.

Other suggestions include adopting policies to improve energy efficiency, obtaining at least 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources, reducing energy consumption in homes and businesses, stabilizing vehicle travel, increasing fuel economy standards, and using more biofuels and other clean alternatives for vehicle fuel.

Marchand, who abandoned a bid for the U.S. Senate this fall, said there is no issue currently facing the nation more critical than climate change.

“To me, this is imperative, and it’s as high a priority as anything we can do,” the mayor said.